2017-issue 4-item 03 - Delft-FEWS
FEWS news: issue 4, 2017
Global flood forecast viewer to increase flood preparedness worldwide
Floods are the most frequent natural disasters that affect millions of people and properties worldwide. To manage flood risks, preparedness by the means of flood forecasting and early warning services is vital. Many areas that are at risk of flooding still lack adequate forecasting services, though. In these areas, global flood forecasts can contribute to the solution. To this end, Deltares shares results from its global storm surge and flood forecasting models through GlobalFloodForecast.com.
Forecasts for the upcoming 7-10 days
For the global storm surge information system the Global Tide and Surge Model (GTSM) is used, which is a DFlowFM model using an unstructured grid to have higher resolution results near the coast. The resolution varies from 50 km offshore and 5 km grid cells near coastal areas. It currently produces forecasts on water levels, currents and storm surge and work is ongoing to also include wave forecasts. Furthermore data is collected on over 600 locations around the entire world to validate the model and work towards data assimilation to further improve the model results.
The underlying hydrological models of GLOFFIS are the PCRaster Global Water Balance model (PCRGLOB-WB), World-Wide Water Resources Assessment model (W3RA) and WFLOW models. The W3RA and WFLOW models presently apply a resolution of ~50 km, and efforts are underway to increase the resolution to 5 km. Both the W3RA and PCRGLOB-WB models are run in deterministic and/or ensemble mode using meteorological forecasting from GFS, GEFS and ECMWF-EPS (latency 2 days). Besides running these forecasts operationally, GLOFFIS will be used for experiments into predictability of floods (and droughts) and their dependency on initial state estimation (e.g. through data assimilation), meteorological forcing and the hydrologic models used.
Who can use it?
In addition, any interested parties can use the viewer for getting up-to-date information on the model results including water levels and discharges.